Analysts Say Crist's Renewable Energy Goals are Reachable

December 4, 2008
By Steve Patterson

TALLAHASSEE - Solar and biomass power can supply significantly more of Florida's electricity within about a decade, analysts told a state agency that regulates power companies Wednesday.

But that same estimate suggests the state could need new policies and good luck to meet a goal for renewable fuel use that Gov. Charlie Crist proposed last year.

The analysis from consultants hired by the Florida Public Service Commission projected that by 2020, anywhere from 6 percent to 27 percent of the electricity used in Florida could be derived from renewable sources such as solar power.

Crist suggested a 20 percent benchmark for 2020 when he launched a broad initiative in 2007 to address climate change, which is widely attributed to the buildup of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels and other sources.

Environmental activists asked the commission to try hard to reach that mark.

"It's an important goal. It shows that Florida is open for business" with companies making alternative energy, said George Cavros, an attorney for the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy.

The Legislature has told the Public Service Commission to propose a firm requirement for utilities to meet and to have that ready by Feb. 1. The commission hired Navigant Consulting to project how available and financially competitive renewable fuel sources would be by 2020.

The answer delivered Wednesday wasn't conclusive, and commissioners didn't make any final decisions.

The consultants said the price of traditional fossil fuels would be the biggest - and most unpredictable - issue on how fast alternatives would be financially viable.

"There is a very large range of potential," said Jay Paidipati , a managing consultant at Navigant. He said market conditions could make renewable sources useful for anywhere from 1.8 billion to 18 billion watts of power capacity. By comparison, JEA has capacity to produce about 2.4 billion watts of power at any given time.

Consultants said they projected a half-dozen different situations involving good and bad market conditions. The projections also figured in whether utilities that make power from renewable sources could sell certificates that other utilities could use like credit for making green power themselves.

Only the brightest scenario showed the state reaching Crist's goal, but the second-best projection came close.

A team of Navigant analysts said solar power has drawbacks, but by 2020 some solar should be a viable choice in almost any energy market. The same consultants said gases from landfills and sewage treatment plants will be affordable power sources, as will some items like unused parts of sugar cane and scrap wood left over from tree farming and clippings.

Wind power could be competitive, but only with renewable-energy credits being sold, they concluded.

Cavros said the Southern Alliance, a prominent advocate for renewable power, estimates that meeting Crist's goal in 2020 would cost a typical consumer an extra $3.50 a month. He said that was based on information in Navigant's estimates, although the consultants didn't suggest a specific price for reaching Crist's goal.

Worried about setting unrealistic schedules, commission staff members drafted a preliminary rule early in the fall that aimed for the 20 percent mark by 2041.

After hearing the consultants Wednesday, staffers suggested weighing three possible timelines: reaching Crist's goal on time, 10 years late or 21 years late. They presented projections that said it would cost billions of dollars less to use the slower timelines.

But discussion of longer timelines stopped shortly after that, when Commissioner Nathan Skop stated his support for Crist's goals and suggested potential rules that could help steer investment into each of several kinds of alternative fuels.

The commission will meet in January to create a final rule.
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December 3, 2008 - Associated Press

Report: Fla. may top gov's renewable energy goal

By BILL KACZOR
Florida can exceed Gov. Charlie Crist's goals for solar, wind, biomass and other renewable energy use, but only if everything goes right, state regulators were told in a report presented Wednesday.

That includes higher prices for fossil fuel, which will make renewables more competitive.

If not, the report said, Florida could fall well short of deriving 20 percent of its electric power from renewable energy by 2020 as Crist has proposed.

Navigant Consulting Inc. of Burlington, Mass., presented its report to the Public Service Commission for use in developing a renewable energy rule that would set goals for the state's five investor-owned electric utilities. The study was prepared for the commission with funding from the U.S. Department of Energy.

The commission will vote Jan. 9. The rule then will go to the Legislature for approval.

Environmentalists and other renewable energy advocates had been critical of a draft rule proposed by commission staffers that also sets a 20 percent goal - but not until 21 years later in 2041. Staffers will use the study in submitting a revised draft before the commission acts.

Crist has made renewable energy a cornerstone of his climate change policy. It's designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions that have been blamed for causing global warming.

The study shows the utilities could get 27 percent of their power from renewables by 2020 under the best of circumstances but only 6 percent in a worst-case scenario. The midrange is under 15 percent.

"The bounds are pretty large," acknowledged Navigant's Jay Paidipati.

Renewable energy advocates were encouraged by the report. A lawyer for four of the utilities, though, questioned many of the assumptions and variables that went into a complex formula Navigant used to develop the differing scenarios.

Stephen A. Smith, executive director of the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, said the study answers questions about the availability of renewable energy and its cost.

"This study resoundingly says that there is the resource," Smith said. "The other really key point is can it be delivered in a cost-effective way? And I think that we see that's the case also."

Susan Clark, a lawyer for Tampa Electric Co., Progress Energy Florida Inc., Florida Power & Light Co. and Gulf Power Co., said the study's conclusions cannot be verified until Navigant responds to a list of written questions she submitted.

The most significant variables are prices for coal, natural gas and oil - the higher they go, the better renewables do - and whether the state adopts renewable energy credits, which pay producers bonuses in exchange for helping clean the air.

Florida cannot meet a 20 percent goal by 2020 without the credits, according to the study.

Other variables are greenhouse gas policies, credit markets, state regulations and financial incentives such as tax exemptions for solar energy devices.

The study concluded solar energy has the greatest potential in Florida but that biomass currently is the state's biggest renewable energy source including municipal solid waste, agriculture and wood byproducts and landfill gas.

Offshore wind has a significant potential but it's costly and not expected to be very well developed before 2020. Florida has limited land areas suitable for onshore wind power. Ocean currents also can produce renewable energy.

Residential thermal solar water heaters were not included in the study. Smith said if they also are considered that would bring Navigant's midrange scenario closer to 20 percent.