Big News from Copenhagen: Radical Cuts Urged, Deal In Jeopardy

on 12/11/2009 @ 1:32pm
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/copenhagen/50541/big_news_from_copenhagen...

Big news from Copenhagen today, where the divide
between big emitters and at-risk nations deepened,
threatening the prospects of reaching a climate deal
for president Obama and other heads of state to sign
when they arrive at the summit next week.

In a day of major developments, the Alliance of Small
Island Nations put forth a radically tougher proposal
for confronting climate change than the US, China and
other major emitters favor. The AOSIS proposal, which
calls for temperature rise not to exceed 1.5 Celsius
above pre-industrial levels, ran counter to a separate
text released today by the chairmen of the summit that
called for smaller but still significant cuts.
Meanwhile, activists prepared for a worldwide day of
demonstrations on Saturday that organizer Bill McKibben
of 350.org said were "explicitly endorsing" the AOSIS
proposal and would involve "millions of people" and
3,000 actions around the world.

"We are not backing 350 because it's a beautiful
number," said diplomat Antonio Lima of Cape Verde, the
vice president of AOSIS, referring to the alliance's
call to reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere to 350 parts per million from today's
389. "No, it is because of science," he added. "Some of
our members will disappear [beneath rising seas] if we
go above 1.5 C."

The rich-poor divide also reared its head on the all-
important question of who will pay the bill for climate
change.

Todd Stern, the Obama administration's chief climate
negotiator, said Thursday that he "categorically
reject[s]" the suggestion that rich industrial
countries owe compensation to the victims of climate
change. Stern acknowledged that the emissions of rich
nations over the past two hundred years of
industrialization had caused global warming, telling a
press conference, "We absolutely recognize our historic
role in putting emissions in the atmosphere." But,
Stern added, "the sense of guilt or culpability or
reparations--I just categorically reject that."

Stern's statement put him at odds not only with
international law but with America's European allies.
European Union leaders announced in Brussels today that
their governments would provide 7.2 billion Euros over
the next three years to help poor nations adapt to sea
level rise, drought and other intensifying impacts of
climate change. The EU's offer was in keeping with the
provisions of the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change--the climate treaty President George H.W. Bush
signed at the Earth Summit in 1992 and which the
Copenhagen negotiations are seeking to extend.
Nevertheless, it was quickly rejected by developing
nations and aid agencies as grossly inadequate.

"We have talked about $100 billion a year," ambassador
Lima told The Nation, citing an estimate the World Bank
has made for climate change adaptation by poor nations.
"Now we are hearing about $10 billion for three years."

"Worst of all, this money is not even new," Tim Gore,
the climate adviser to Oxfam EU, told the BBC. "It's
made up of a recycling of past promises and payments
that have already been made."

The emissions reductions included in the AOSIS proposal
go far beyond what is currently on the table in
Copenhagen. AOSIS calls for global emissions to peak
"no later than 2015," which aligns with statements made
by IPCC Chair Ranjendra Pachauri. But AOSIS then
demands that the US and other developed nations cut
emissions by 45 percent (compared to 1990 levels) by
2020. Furthermore, global emissions, including from
large developing countries such as China and India, are
to fall at least 85 percent by 2050.

Noting that Pachauri, NASA scientist James Hansen and
other experts have endorsed reducing carbon dioxide
levels to 350 parts per million as soon as possible,
McKibben hailed the AOSIS proposal as "the first truly
rational attempt to grapple with what the science of
climate change tells us."

But the US, China and other big emitters are backing
much smaller cuts. The EU has offered to cut its
emissions by 20 percent from 1990 levels by 2020, and
by 30 percent if other nations do the same. Japan has
made a similar pledge, while the Obama administration,
facing congressional resistance, has offered to cut by
a mere 4 percent. China and India have said they will
limit the growth of their emissions but that population
growth and the need to fight poverty require absolute
emissions to grow for years to come.

Thus the stage is set for a showdown in Copenhagen next
week. Heads of state do not generally come to high-
profile international negotiations like this one unless
they expect to sign a deal. Poor and vulnerable nations
are counting on global public pressure to compel the
biggest emitters to go further, much further, than they
have in mind.

"If we leave Copenhagen without a legally binding
outcome and without very strong commitment on finance,
how can we go in front of our children and tell them,
We couldn't reach [an agreement]," ambassador Lima told
a roomful of young activists holding signs saying, "We
stand with AOSIS." That's why we need the support of
you, the youth," he continued, "because you are the
ones who are going to suffer if we don't have a good
result. And sometimes your governments will hear you
when they do not hear us."